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Two Charts: (1) highlighting the next best probability buy re-entry range and (2) the most recent buy/sells as per the previous note and model.
Short term distribution is underway as reflected in the deteriorating candle structure. A triple top technical formation is noted.
It's also worth noting that the price action model reading (tactical trading guide) helped to recognize the poor buy/long reward-to-risk as the price rallied into multi-month highs. At the time (18 February), the time-stamped reading stated the following: "Would not enter a buy/long here. The reward-to-risk is unattractive".
Previous Post: Trading Naspers' +R900 Rally (+26%)
NPN blasting through levels, adding 26% over 4 weeks, boosted by the Chinese technology sector. The initial view informed by both manual analysis as well as automated readings.
As highlighted in this same note (scroll down): "...expect a small rebound' -
*time-stamped price action model reading at the swing lows of 13 January.
The price action model (TTG) alerted to the possibility of a small rebound (scroll down to see previous note + time-stamped reading). The share is now higher by 6.4%.
Now trading into the next best probability resistance range (see chart).
Previous Post (Sunday 26 January): Trading Naspers: Cash Flow For Active Traders (+Price Action Model Reading)
On Monday 13 January at 15h08, we highlighted Naspers shares trading in an oversold range relative to the JSE Top 40 Index. Since then, the share has rallied by R159, generating cash flow for traders who took advantage of the aforementioned oversold conditions.
The model reading for the 3x time frames, as of Friday's close, is as follows:
Naspers: next best probability short term resistance at the upside overshoot of the declining 21-day EMA. Chart as of the close on Friday 24 January.
Previous Post: Relative The Top 40, Naspers Is Trading In A Short Term Oversold Range (Monday 13 January) at 15h08
Previous Post: Naspers: Well Done, Short Sellers (Tuesday 07 January)
Naspers: The share has fallen sharpy, in line with the model reading (published 05 January) which showed that the declining 8/21-EMA could be used as a level into which to initiate short/sell positions. On the back of geopolitical company-related developments (China/military etc.), the share declined by over 9%, reached it's rising 50-week moving average and it's 200-day simple moving average. The candle structure remains poor, with potential for further weakness. For traders looking to re-enter, it would be best to wait until there is stabilization on the lower time frames (1-hour and 4-hour etc.).
The pullback is also in line with the Tactical Trading Guide seen at the peak on 02 October (peak), which warned traders that the reward-to-risk was unappealing and that a consolidation and pullback can be expected. See the time-stamped reading below:
Previous Post: Naspers Price and Trend Analysis (Sunday, 05 January 2025)
Price Action Model with 3x Time Frames
AI-Assisted Summary of the above Price Action Model
Overall, the price action model suggests a bearish short-term trend with a potential for bullish momentum in the medium and long term. Traders should be cautious in the short term and look for opportunities to sell on rebounds. In the medium and long term, they should look for minor support levels to buy into for a potential rebound.
Price Chart With Moving Average Trends
Technical Trend Ratings (Monthly, Weekly & Daily)
Lester Davids
Analyst: Unum Capital
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