Trade Aspen Pharmacare with Unum Capital.
To get started, email lester@unum.co.za
Text from the image above:
HIGH RISK BUY IDEA therefore small-than-average position sizes may apply. The share has been sold off aggressively and was previously in a high bearish momentum regime while approaching oversold. A base has developed and this may be a RANGE to starting building a buy/long position with the expectation that the base is maintained over the near term followed by a potential bullish reversal. Buy at current levels or lower (traders could consider starting with a 1/3 of the position). As always, traders could consider the following if/when the prices approaches the target: bank/take profit, partially scale out, adjust the stop-loss to protect profits. Time stop: 09 June 2025.
TRADING LEVELS:
Entry: 17124 (or better)
Target: 19000
Stop-loss: 15900
Previous Post: ASPEN PHARMACARE Noted: Above-Average Volume (4.5m Shares) + Value Traded (R779m)
Tuesday 10 December 2024 (Time: Pre-Market)
10-day average volume: 1.4m shares
30-day average volume: 1.2m shares
Yesterday's volume: 4.5m shares
Value trade: R779m
Previous Post: ASPEN PHARMACARE The Bull, Bear & Base Case
Thursday 28 November 2024 (Time: Pre-Market, 06h32)
This is an update. Please scroll down for the previous posts.
The price action remains unhealthy, with strong selling pressure, with my view being that is that it is too early to buy, however, it may be worthwhile adding it to your watchlist for when the price action stabilizes/improves.
Bear Case = A print lower, with a very slow recovery which includes opportunity cost.
Base Case = A print lower, with a slower, but eventual recovery.
Bull Case = A print lower, followed an overshoot of the ~R160-ish support range, followed by a relatively quick price recovery.
The dotted arrow represents my best-probability price action scenario.
Bear Case = A print lower, with a very slow recovery which includes opportunity cost.
Base Case = A print lower, with a slower, but eventual recovery (possible little downside from here).
Bull Case = A print lower, followed an overshoot (false breakdown) of the ~R160-ish support range, followed by a relatively quick price recovery (possible little downside from here).
Adding to the above, as of yesterday's close, the price action data was as follows:
Previous Post: Aspen Pharmacare: Unhealthy Price Action, But Flashing For Opportunity
Wednesday 23 October 2024
Time Published: Pre-Market
Ticker: APN
I am fully aware of the heavy selling pressure and poor price action, however, I am starting to notice readings coming through which states that the reward-to-risk is becoming attractive for a small buy/long position.
While the readings are there, it may just be sensible to wait until the price stops going down and starts to form a base...or gives us a 'flush low' and a V-shaped reversal setup.
Notice the 5 to 8 week reading also stating that selling is aggressive and that we should wait for the price to stabilize?
I drew these lines a few weeks ago, thinking R160 or thereabout would be a level of interest.
Previous Post: Aspen Pharmacare: The Long and Short of It - Thursday, 05 September 2024
Pre-Market
Ticker: APN
Within the span of 19 months, the share has provided clients of Unum Capital with two opportunities to profit.
These opportunities came on both the long (buy) and short (sell) side, benefiting from a rising and falling share price.
The short leg provided short term traders with 3x opportunities to sell above 23500c.
Although the share briefly test the stop-loss level (a spike), the share pullback was in line with the view.
The updated chart, with the time-stamped ideas, is shown below.
Lester Davids
Analyst: Unum Capital
Comments