This Is How I'm Looking At Copper + Updated Target

Thursday, 03 October 2024

Time Published: 19h26

Great comeback on the back of the Chinese stimulus announcement, with the continued development of a +3 year base.
Measured move target (medium/long term) = $6.60

Previous Post: Tuesday, 24 September at 11H16

The People's Bank of China (PBoC) introduced several measures to boost the economy amid concerns that the official growth target of around 5% might be out of reach due to recent weak data. Governor Pan Gongsheng said in a media briefing today that the central bank will cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50bps, which will inject CNY 1 trillion into the financial system, with the possibility of another reduction of 0.25 to 0.5 ppts later this year. In addition, the PBoC will lower the seven-day reverse repo rate by 20bps to 1.5%, aiming to reduce short-term borrowing costs for banks. This move is accompanied by a 30bps reduction in borrowing costs of the medium-term lending facility. Mortgage rates will also be trimmed, with an expected average drop of 50bps, and the minimum down payment for second homes will be cut to 15% from 25%. Pan did not specify when the moves will take effect. Tuesday's action came after the US Fed started its monetary easing cycle with a large rate cut - Source: TradingEconomics

Previous Post (26 August 2024)

US Trading Session (Mon, 26-Aug-2024), Time: 19h00 (S/Africa)

Was $3.95 vs a multi-week high of $4.23 today.

Previous Post (07 August 2024)

Real-Time: 14h36

Trading at it's previous breakout level.

Previous Post:

UPDATE: Copper has retraced from it's short and medium term overbought levels, having traded above $5.00. This follows an impressive run, one that we discussed on 16 November 2023. The automated model gave us a reading on 15 May, warning of an unappealing reward-to-risk on the upside i.e. expect a pullback. At current levels, the commodity trades in a high bearish momentum regime, approaching short term oversold levels. In addition, it is trading at or around the rising 21-week exponential moving average (EMA), a level at which bulls could re-emerge. The short term trend remains down, however active traders would want to monitor for early signs of price stabilization which could signal the start of a base and potentially a bullish reversal.