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The index has retraced in line with the model reading, with deteriorating candle structure reflecting indecision with a bearish bias among market participants. In the ultra short term, the 5844 to 5864 level has been defended by buyers, with a strong rebound off this level during Friday's trading session. This support zone is in line withy the 75-day EMA (now trading sideways) but below the declining 21-day EMA with could continue to act as a resistance level. Do note, on a medium and long term basis, in the index could be entering a period of consolidation, having previously been overbought (with a pullback and consolidation having been the best probability outcomes). The 200-day SMA is at 5573 (subject to change).
Previous Post: S&P 500 INDEX Weakening In Line With Model Reading
On 05 December research highlighted the overextended level of the index, sighting the risk of a medium term retracement. The index subsequently consolidated which was followed by a sharp sell-off, triggered by the announcement of an interest rate cut, which was seen as a so-called 'hawkish cut'. The index entered ultra short term oversold conditions, finding support on it's rising 75-day EMA, which was followed by a rebound. The current price action reflects a mixed bag, with a sightly bearish bias i.e. a tapering of the previous aggressive upward momentum into a neutral regime. Comment as of 30 December 2024 at 12h35.
Previous Post: S&P 500 INDEX Risk of Medium Term Retracement
Thursday 05 December 2024 (Time: 21h49)
Lester Davids
Analyst: Unum Capital
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