Research: Insights & Opportunities - Tuesday, 12 March 2024

Updated: Apr 8

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Lester Davids

Analyst: Unum Capital

06h30 | JSE Technical Summary: Mid & Large Caps, as of yesterday’s close.

06h30 | JSE Relative Sector Regimes, as of yesterday afternoon.

Top 40, Technology, Diversified Miners, Banks, Insurers

Coal Miners, Telecoms, Paper & Pulp, Chemicals, Luxury Goods, USD/ZAR

Gold Miners, Platinum Miners, Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary, Pharmaceuticals & Hospitals

06h30 | HAR Harmony Gold - trading 99% above it’s 200-week SMA...that’s technically expensive and 2x it’s long term average. In addition, the SHORT TERM reading on the Tactical Trading Guide states: “…extremely overbought”. See the TTG for the complete reading. Previous buy signals for Harmony below R70 in August and October Read more about it here.

06h30 | NED Nedbank Group Ltd | UPDATE: At R230 the share was overbought however the idea was to re-enter a buy/long on a pullback to R220 (see research extract below). We saw the share pull back followed by a rebound off ~R220…now at a 7-month high. Well done if you took the opportunity to trade. My previous comment is shown below:

NED Update: Approaching the 23800c technical target.

06h30 | KIO Kumba Iron Ore | UPDATE: As far as I can see, yesterday’s sharp move lower wasn’t due to any ex-dividend date, but rather the suspension of operations on South Africa's main iron ore export line following a train derailment early Sunday (source: MarketWatch/MorningStar). Yesterday's end-of-day reading via the Tactical Trading Guide is as follows:

Note the LONG TERM column (5 to 8 weeks). It’s states: “…broadly weak, expect a small rebound.” In my experience of using this data, my view view is that you have to give the long term time frame time to develop, or other words, time for the setup to take shape and present itself. Remember, the share can continue to fall or take a few days/weeks for a base to develop before we potentially see a bullish reversal.

Most recently, clients were alerted to a SELL/SHORT idea on Kumba at 61235c (Monday 27 November). The market was kind me on this idea as the share started to turn lower, immediately. Well done to all clients who managed to take advantage of the opportunity to trade......last close R487.

06h30 | GLN Glencore Plc | Making use of the Tactical Trading Guide gives you an advantage and may add to your thought process by providing an unbiased view regarding price action. Yesterday’s price movement in Glencore is confirmation of the short term (1 to 10 days) pre-market reading which was as follows” “General trend up however, look for failure to hold the prior session highs to initiate a 1 to 2 day short/sell setup”.

The chart below is of 11:45am yesterday morning.

06h30 | BID Corp | UPDATE: The automated data (Tactical Trading Guide) for Monday 05 February stated that the most probable directions were (1) a minor pullback or (2) a consolidation. The share peaked during the following session (Tuesday 06 February) from a high of R478 to a low of R422. This potential price action development was also specifically discussed on the same day (pre-market) Monday 05 February. The research extract (with price chart at R470) is shown below.

Tuesday 12 March 2024, 06h30 | BID Corp | Where To Next? | Over the short term, the share has been stuck in a range, lacking directional bias. Sellers have been controlling the R460 level, which is evident as the price has tested this range for several sessions, however has struggled clear/reclaim it. Considering the daily chart, a breach of the incline support could bring the 200-day moving average (~R425) back into focus. It may also be worth noting that the share is trading 35% above it’s 200-week SMA, which by historical measures, appear extended to the upside.

06h30 | Tactical Trading Guide (Share Commentary on Largest 60 Shares By Market Cap): Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from our Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis of over 90 JSE-listed equities across 17 sectors and across 3 time frames: short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change, based on the development of the subsequent price action. Click here to access the data set => https://www.unum.capital/post/tactical-trading-guide