Research: Insights & Opportunities - Thursday, 14 March 2024

Updated: Mar 20

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Lester Davids

Analyst: Unum Capital

Good day. Thank you for taking the time to visit this page. My overall goal is to provide you with leading, high quality information by conveying my best interpretation of the most relevant market information in order for you, as a client to: (1) understand the potential opportunities and manage the potential risks and (2) make informed decisions around trading opportunities. To read my full research philosophy, please visit the following link: https://www.unum.capital/post/research-philosophy. To continue reading today’s research, please scroll down.

06h30 | JSE Technical Summary: Mid & Large Caps, as of yesterday’s close.

Candlestick Formations form part of technical price charts, which are are used by market participants to interpret current demand-supply dynamics, potential price trends as well as form decisions from these inferences. The tables below highlight the following: (1) The share code (2) the candle's 'change from open’ (over 1 session) i.e. from the start of the first hour of the trading day to the end of the last hour of the trading day'. This is used to determine the strength/weakness of the candle formation i.e. the greater (+) the percentage, the stronger the candle formation and the weaker (-) the percentage, the weaker the candle formation and (3) the share's short term technical rating i.e. which phase the share is in over a 7 day period.

06h30 | JSE Relative Sector Regimes, as of yesterday afternoon.

Top 40, Technology, Diversified Miners, Banks, Insurers

Gold Miners, Platinum Miners, Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary, Pharmaceuticals & Hospitals

Coal Miners, Telecoms, Paper & Pulp, Chemicals, Luxury Goods, USD/ZAR

Thursday, 14 March 2024, 06h30 | CFR Richemont | Medium Term = High bullish momentum/approaching overbought + approaching unfilled gap. Also note, relative to the Top 40 Index, the share is trading 19% above it’s 200-day SMA. There is however a negative divergence as the previous relative high saw the share trading 32% above it’s 200-day SMA.

06h30 | UPDATE: It looks like, on a relative basis, the market has started to switch out of Financials and into Resources. Satrix Resources Has Since Outperformed Satrix Financials By 10.9% since the note (+chart) below on Monday 26-February.

06h30 | IMP Impala Platinum has moved faster than I expected, with the price nearly at the R78 target. As highlighted to you on Friday morning (see original comment and chart below), the yellow candles was my expected/potential price path (circled area). Well done to all managed to buy in before the big reversal. Is the share still a buy here? Well, it depends on your time horizon. After a +33% change over 1 week, the data states the following: SHORT TERM (1 to 10 days): “Aggressive buying but do not chase (I.e. do not buy after a massive move). Look for overshoot or failure to hold the prior session highs to short/sell back to the 8-EMA”. MEDIUM TERM (2 to 4 weeks): “Strong candle structure (bullish attempt) following a generally weaker trend”. LONG TERM (5 to 8 weeks): “After a general downward trend, some buyers are showing interest”. See the TTG extract below (as of yesterday's close).

Sticking with Impala Platinum, the data also started giving a buy signal end of day Monday 04 March when it was down close to 8%. Below is the current chart with the time-stamped reading of the signal. Note the reading: “The reward-to-risk is becoming attractive for a small buy/long position”.

06h30 | Copper Futures - Now trading above $4.00, with very strong price action. Strong reversal from the previous view in November which considered the falling wedge technical formation as well as technical support at $3.55.

06h30 | Tactical Trading Guide (Share Commentary on Largest 60 Shares By Market Cap): Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from our Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis of over 90 JSE-listed equities across 17 sectors and across 3 time frames: short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change, based on the development of the subsequent price action.