Research: Insights & Opportunities - Friday, 15 March 2024

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Lester Davids

Analyst: Unum Capital

Friday, 15 March 2024 | 06h30 | Brent Crude Oil | NOW HIGHER BY 15% | On 07 December I stated on the Telegram group that it may be time to re-introduce upside risk on Brent Crude Oil and that the development of a short term base was possible (see insert below). As I write this, the commodity is trading at $85.45, up 15% from the $74.16 on 07-December. The commodity is also at a 4-month high and emerging from a multi-month base. The most recent price action has seen the price in a tight consolidation range around the 200-day moving average, which is being followed by an upside continuation. Remember, higher oil prices mean the potential for higher inflation, which could reduce the chances of interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve. In turn, this could be a negative for equities.

Friday 15 March 2024, 06h30 | Stoxx 600 and Stoxx 600 Oil & Gas | Yesterday I noticed that the Stoxx Oil & Gas Futures Sector was one of the strongest for the session. The current setup has a similar technical structure to that of the Stoxx 600, as seen in December, before the bull flag breakout. Similar to US energy names (previously discussed XLE ETF), this would be sector to monitor for buy/long opportunities on the back of the rise in oil prices.

Friday 15 March 2024, 06h30 | EXX Exxaro Resources | Heavy Sell-Off, Update: The share has seen a significant unwind from my 16 January comment which considered the deteriorating candle structure and negative momentum readings. Was R192, Now R164. Below is the original comment on 16 January + yesterday’s end of day readings from the Tactical Trading Guide is shown below, followed by the original and updated charts.

Below: Tactical Trading Guide For EXX Exxaro Resources as of yesterday’s close (Thursday, 14 March)

Friday 15 March 2024, 06h30 | SBK Standard Bank | Strong Results However, Sharp Sell-Off. Update: Now lower by R22 from R208 down to R186. As previous discussed on Monday 19 February, the share traded 37% above it’s 200-week SMA, which was nearing extended levels by historical measures.

SBK Standard Bank: Further Comment - Yesterday the share closed at R186 which is also in line with the my previous comment that noted R186 as the 50-week SMA.

Friday, 15 March 2024 | 06h30 | JSE Technical Summary: Mid & Large Caps, as of yesterday’s close.

Friday, 15 March 2024 | 06h30 | Candlestick Formations form part of technical price charts, which are are used by market participants to interpret current demand-supply dynamics, potential price trends as well as form decisions from these inferences. The tables below highlight the following: (1) The share code (2) the candle's 'change from open’ (over 1 session) i.e. from the start of the first hour of the trading day to the end of the last hour of the trading day'. This is used to determine the strength/weakness of the candle formation i.e. the greater (+) the percentage, the stronger the candle formation and the weaker (-) the percentage, the weaker the candle formation and (3) the share's short term technical rating i.e. which phase the share is in over a 7 day period.

Friday, 15 March 2024 | 06h30 | JSE Relative Sector Regimes, as of yesterday afternoon.

Top 40, Technology, Diversified Miners, Banks, Insurers

Gold Miners, Platinum Miners, Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary, Pharmaceuticals & Hospitals

Coal Miners, Telecoms, Paper & Pulp, Chemicals, Luxury Goods, USD/ZAR

Friday, 15 March 2024 | 06h30 | Tactical Trading Guide (Share Commentary on Largest 60 Shares By Market Cap): Technology + Proprietary Insights has helped to develop automated tools and strategies that are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This page highlights readings from our Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis of over 90 JSE-listed equities across 17 sectors and across 3 time frames: short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change, based on the development of the subsequent price action.