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Old Mutual: Inexpensive vs The Broader Market

Writer's picture: Lester DavidsLester Davids

Trade Old Mutual with Unum Capital.

To get started, email lester@unum.co.za


The chart below is a weekly ratio of OMU relative to the Top 40 Index. What's worth noting is the share has underperformed over the long term while having developed a 2-year relative base that is now looking to turn. So far this week, OMU has outperformer the broader market by 6.55% (as of Thursday morning), with strong candle structure being evident. Portfolio Buy Idea.



Previous Post: Trading Old Mutual: Running +10% - Consider Reducing Long Positions


In line with manual and automated/model reading. High of 1289c thus far, this morning.

For short term traders, consider reducing buy/long positions.



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Previous Post: OLD MUTUAL: Oversold + Approaching Prior Swing Low



Analyst's Price Action Model at 10h24
Analyst's Price Action Model at 10h24

Q: What is the overall trend of Old Mutual? A: The overall trend of Old Mutual appears to be weak, with selling pressure evident. However, there is a probability of a small rebound.


Q: What is the current 7-day trend? A: The current 7-day trend for Old Mutual is oversold.


Q: What is the current 14-day trend? A: The current 14-day trend for Old Mutual is very bearish.


Q: Is there any opportunity for a short-term buy/long position? A: Yes, the reward-to-risk is becoming attractive for a small buy/long position.


Q: What is the advice for the medium term (2 to 4 weeks)? A: For the medium term, the advice is to wait for lower time frames to stabilize before taking any aggressive selling action.


Q: What is the advice for the long term (5 to 8 weeks)? A: The share has been weak however, there is a possibility of a small rebound.


Summary: The Old Mutual price action model indicates a weak overall trend with oversold and very bearish short-term trends. Despite this, there's a potential opportunity for a small buy/long position due to the improving reward-to-risk ratio. For the medium term, it's recommended to wait for lower time frames to stabilize before aggressive selling. In the long term, the share has been weak however, there is a possibility of a small rebound.


OMU Daily Chart as of Wednesday 15 January at 10h31
OMU Daily Chart as of Wednesday 15 January at 10h31
 

Previous Post: OLD MUTUAL Discount Relative To Sector Peers + Emerging From A Technical Base


The most appropriate metric to value insurers is 'price to embedded value'. One could also consider price to book, price to earnings and dividend yield.


Thursday 05 December 2024 (Time: 10h52)






Lester Davids

Analyst: Unum Capital

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