Notable is a page dedicated to fast-paced, running research commentary intended to alert to client to a potentially significant level or development, mainly from a technical perspective. Further, the content gives clients access to the analyst's perspective of an instrument which can help in preparing for a potential trading opportunity.
The research insights below represent my views thus far today. Additional insights may be added where applicable.
To trade, or open a new account, contact the Unum Capital Trading Desk:
E-mail: tradingdesk@unum.co.za | Call: 011 384 2923
Lester Davids
Analyst: Unum Capital
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Monday 11-December-2023, 06h30 JSE Sector Ratings as of Friday's close.
Monday 11-December-2023, 06h30 Shares to consider buy/long re-entries should they pull back into their 50-day exponential moving averages (EMA). Tickers: INL, INP, RNI, TFG
Monday 11-December-2023, 06h30 Shares that have declined significantly over 1 week and are flagging as potential bullish reversal plays. Tickers: SOL, DRD, ANG, AGL
Monday 11-December-2023, 06h30 Overbought across multiple time frames, high bullish momentum/approaching overbought [short/sell bias]. Tickers: CLS, MNP
Monday 11-December-2023, 06h30 JSE Technical Summary as of yesterday's close.
Monday 11-December-2023, 06h30 Tactical Trading Guide: JSE Equities. Automated Tool and Strategies are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This data highlights readings from the Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which covers over 90 shares and which is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis of all JSE-listed equities across 3 time frames: short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change, based on the development of the subsequent price action. Click on the image below to access the data, as of Friday's close.
Friday 08-December-2023, 07h31 Tactical Trading Guide: JSE Equities. Automated Tool and Strategies are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This data highlights readings from the Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which covers over 75 shares and which is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis of all JSE-listed equities across 3 time frames: short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change, based on the development of the subsequent price action. Click on the image below to access the data, as of yesterday's close.
Friday 08-December-2023, 06h30 JSE Technical Summary as of yesterday's close.
Thursday 07-December-2023, 11h13 Brent Crude Oil. The Start of a Short Term Base? Previous View: 03 July: Add oil risk. 12 September = Reduce oil risk. Updated View. Oversold conditions = potential opportunity to add back risk on oil and related sectors. Now trading at the lower boundary of the parallel channel + bullish divergence on both the 7 and 14-day RSI's.
Thursday 07-December-2023, 10h42 FX: USD/JPY. Updated View. Downside follow-through. next support 144.00. Next key level = the 200-day SMA around 142.80.
Thursday 07-December-2023, 10h30 US 10-Year Bond Yields (US10Y). Updated View. The unwind from the upper boundary of the bull channel has accelerated with the yield now trading below it's prior breakout level and at the previous demand/supply zone. Short Term Support Range = 4.08% to 4.11%. Short Term Resistance Range = 4.30% to 4.35%. The yield is also nearing a support zone of 4.02%, which is at or around the 200-day moving average.
Thursday 07-December-2023, 08h30 Sasol Ltd (SOL). The lower prices has raised interest in SOL. I've highlighted the medium term and long term readings below:
Thursday 07-December-2023, 08h24 Tactical Trading Guide: JSE Equities. Automated Tool and Strategies are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This data highlights readings from the Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which covers over 75 shares and which is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis of all JSE-listed equities across 3 time frames: short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change, based on the development of the subsequent price action. Click on the image below to access the data, as of yesterday's close.
Thursday 06-December-2023, 06h30 British American Tobacco (BTI, 53198c). BTI's market update saw it's share lower by almost 11% on the day - it's biggest daily decline since 2019. There's plenty of opinion and commentary, so to differentiate, I'll present my brief manual view as well as the reading from the Tactical Trading Guide as of yesterday's close. Testing the lower boundary of parallel channel. The upper and lower boundaries of the channel connect the highs and lows of the price trend to reflect key accumulation and distribution levels.
Automated Analysis (via Tactical Trading Guide) as of yesterday's close.
BTI SHORT TERM: "Aggressive selling but buy/long reward-to-risk may be attractive".
BTI MEDIUM TERM: No reading available.
BTI LONG TERM: "Aggressive selling, wait for lower time frames (4H, 1D) to stabilize".
Thursday 06-December-2023, 06h30 JSE Technical Summary as of yesterday's close.
Wednesday 06-December-2023, 11h06 Trade Alert: Clicks Group (CLS). Published on the CMS, then to Telegram.
Wednesday 06-December-2023, 08h22 Datatec (DTC). A build-up in volume + improving technical structure bodes well. Above 3615c will be key for a change of trend of neutral to bullish.
Wednesday 06-December-2023, 07h58 JSE Gold Miners. The group has started to pull back from their overbought positions (data highlighted in recent days). The SHORT TERM readings are as follows: Both ANG & GFI stating that the bullish momentum is slowing on the lower time frames and that the 8, 21, 50-EMA are ranges to consider buy/long re-entries.
📌 Wednesday 06-December-2023, 06h30 Internally, we receive the Tactical Trading Guide every evening at 19h30 via email and for the past 3 months I've compiled the same data on Excel the to make it available to clients. If you've followed it, I hope that you are finding it useful and that you've been able to pick up on trading opportunities as well as recognize potential risks for the shares that you trade. I'm using it as follows: (1) To assess reward-to-risk (2) to recognize potential trading opportunities (3) to pick up certain price structures for example range breaks, pullbacks to key moving averages to buy or sell (4) to understand the readings across various time frames. Mondi Plc (MNP) is another example of how the data set and automation provided a timely alert before a massive move in the share price. At the end of the day on 19 October, the short term reading was as follows: "Aggressive selling but reward-to-risk may be attractive". At the end of the day on 20 October, the short term reading was as follows: "The reward-to-risk is becoming attractive for a small buy long position". The share bottomed the following session and we have since see the share rally from R282 to R342 at yesterday's high. The Tactical Trading Guide is one of the most valuable data sets for traders looking to profit. Are you using it manage risk and find opportunity?
Wednesday 06-December-2023, 06h30 JSE Short Term Technical Ratings, as of yesterday's close.
Wednesday 06-December-2023, 06h30 JSE Relative Sector Ratings
Wednesday 06-December-2023, 06h30 Tactical Trading Guide: JSE Equities. Automated Tool and Strategies are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This data highlights readings from the Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which covers over 75 shares and which is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis of all JSE-listed equities across 3 time frames: short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change, based on the development of the subsequent price action. Click on the image below to access the data, as of yesterday's close.
Tuesday 05-December-2023, 08h23 Strategy Screen: Short Term Term - "Buyers On Control But Weakness On Lower Time Frame. Look For Pullback Toward 8/21 EMA (potential buy/re-entry range) before next move higher". *A strategy screen is a filter derived from my Tactical Trading Guide which aims to highlight a share's technical position or groups certain shares according to their technical reading on the same time frame. The readings are subject to change, based on the subsequent price action/price development. The tickers are highlighted in the column to the far left.
Tuesday 05-December-2023, 08h05 Netcare Ltd (NTC). Update. Strong recovery underway since buy/long view on 07 September. The original chart is shown below.
Tuesday 05-December-2023, 08h05 Long Netcare, Short Life Healthcare. Update. I discussed this market neutral (pair trade) opportunity on 07 September, which, looking back, was the day that the pair bottomed. Yesterday the pair was higher by as much as 30%.
Tuesday 05-December-2023, 08h05 Strategy Screen: Short Term Term - "Do not enter a buy/long at current levels. The reward-to-risk is unattractive ". *A strategy screen is a filter derived from my Tactical Trading Guide which aims to highlight a share's technical position or groups certain shares according to their technical reading on the same time frame. The readings are subject to change, based on the subsequent price action/price development. The tickers are highlighted in the column to the far left.
Tuesday 05-December-2023, 07h58 JSE Gold Shares. In line with the model. Yesterday we saw the shares come under pressure, in line with the readings from the Tactical Trading Guide, as of pre-market (Friday's close). The Tactical Trading Guide helps traders uncover opportunity as well as manage risk.
Tuesday 05-December-2023, 07h29 Clicks Group (CLS, 30497c). By the end of yesterday's trading session, the share printed a hammer candle formation. This candle structure comes following an already strong move off the lows seen on 23 October. Today's candle structure will be important as failure to hold the prior session highs could signal that the upward momentum is being exhausted which could provide an opportunity to re-enter a short/sell trade. The Tactical Trading Guide as of yesterday's close states the aforementioned and is as follows:
Clicks (CLS) - reviewing some of the key the fundamental metrics, it is noted that the price-to-ratio remains elevated at 29x while the EV/EBITDA is at 12x. This is considered expensive.
Tuesday 05-December-2023, 06h30 JSE Short Term Technical Ratings, as of yesterday's close.
Tuesday 05-December-2023, 06h30 Tactical Trading Guide: JSE Equities. Automated Tool and Strategies are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This data highlights readings from the Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which covers over 75 shares and which is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis of all JSE-listed equities across 3 time frames: short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change, based on the development of the subsequent price action. Click on the image below to access the data, as of yesterday's close.
Monday 04-December-2023, 13h53 Trade Alert: Paypal Holdings (PYPL) - Originally published to CMS, then Telegram.
Monday 04-December-2023, 10h40 Trade Alert: Sappi Ltd (SAP) - Originally published to CMS, then Telegram.
Monday 04-December-2023, 09h26 Trade Alert: City Lodge (CLH) - Originally published to CMS, then Telegram.
Monday 04-December-2023, 08h30 Trade Alert: Glencore Plc (GLN) - Originally published to CMS, then Telegram.
Monday 04-December-2023, 06h30 JSE Short Term Technical Ratings, as of Friday's close.
Monday 04-December-2023, 06h30 [RELATIVE SECTOR ANALYSIS] JSE Resources vs JSE Top 40 Index. In November 2022 I expressed my view which pointed to the potential for JSE Mining & Resources shares to UNDERPERFORM the broader market on a relative basis. From January to November this year, the underperformance was significant as the underlying constituents sold off strongly from their previous peaks. The bear flag technical formation, which was a key feature of the relative UNDERWEIGHT position, has been completed. The relative chart shows the ratio having traded into the long term demand/supply zone, initially slipping below followed by a recovery. The candle structure as per this weekly chart is improving, with the sector closing near a 4-month high on a relative basis. Bottom Line: A sector recovery could be underway over the medium term.
Monday 04-December-2023, 06h30 Aspen Pharmacare (APN, 18524c). Previously, traders were alerted to a re-entry for R160 - R164, which was followed by a rally which saw the share test a high of 18856c on Friday. The candle structure shows signs of an exhaustion of upward momentum, with a long upper tail having developed. Friday's high is also in line with a supply zone that has been in place since Q1. In the short term, the buy/long reward-to-risk is less favourable than the previous re-entry (R160 - R164).
APN Buy Idea 05 September 2023: R160 - R164
Monday 04-December-2023, 06h30 Strategy Screen: Medium Term (1-3 Weeks). MONDI PLC (MNP). "General trend up however look for failure to hold prior session highs to initiate a 1 to 2 day short/sell setup". Mondi Plc gave you buy/long signal via the Tactical Trading Guide on Friday 20 October below R289. The share has since rallied sharply to test a high of R340.42 on Friday. While I am positive on the long term setup for the share, the short term (1-5 days) and medium term (1-3 weeks) does not offer an appealing reward-to-risk from an entry perspective on the buy/long side. See the short term and medium term readings below followed by my updated view on the chart.
Monday 04-December-2023, 06h30 Harmony Gold (HAR). Potential short/sell if it becomes overextended.
Monday 04-December-2023, 06h30 JSE Sector vs JSE Top 40: Short Term Trend Analysis
Monday 04-December-2023, 06h30 Tactical Trading Guide: JSE Equities. Automated Tool and Strategies are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This data highlights readings from the Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which covers over 75 shares and which is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis of all JSE-listed equities across 3 time frames: short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change, based on the development of the subsequent price action. Click on the image below to access the data, as of yesterday's close.
Media: Unum Capital x Business Day [Friday, 01 December 2023, 19h21]
Friday 01-December-2023, 08h27 Strategy Screen: Short Term Term - "Aggressive selling in days sessions but the buy/long reward-to-risk may be attractive ". *A strategy screen is a filter derived from my Tactical Trading Guide which aims to highlight a share's technical position or groups certain shares according to their technical reading on the same time frame. The readings are subject to change, based on the subsequent price action/price development. The tickers are highlighted in the column to the far left.
Friday 01-December-2023, 08h24 Strategy Screen: Short Term Term - "Very strong move, buyers in control but do not chase. The share may fail at an attempt to hold it's prior session highs. If it does not hold, then the 8-EMA may be a short/sell target". *A strategy screen is a filter derived from my Tactical Trading Guide which aims to highlight a share's technical position or groups certain shares according to their technical reading on the same time frame. The readings are subject to change, based on the subsequent price action/price development. The tickers are highlighted in the column to the far left.
Friday 01-December-2023, 08h22 Strategy Screen: Short Term Term - "Do not enter buy/long here. The reward-to-risk is unappealing". *A strategy screen is a filter derived from my Tactical Trading Guide which aims to highlight a share's technical position or groups certain shares according to their technical reading on the same time frame. The readings are subject to change, based on the subsequent price action/price development. The tickers are highlighted in the column to the far left.
Friday 01-December-2023, 08h17 Strategy Screen: Short Term Term - "Attempting to advance while in a bullish regime, If it pulls back, use the prior session close or the 8-EMA as an accumulation zone". *A strategy screen is a filter derived from my Tactical Trading Guide which aims to highlight a share's technical position or groups certain shares according to their technical reading on the same time frame. The readings are subject to change, based on the subsequent price action/price development. The tickers are highlighted in the column to the far left.
Friday 01-December-2023, 07h59 JSE Relative Sector Ratings, as of yesterday's close.
Friday 01-December-2023, 07h22 JSE Short Term Technical Ratings, as of yesterday's close.
Friday 01-December-2023, 07h13 Tactical Trading Guide: JSE Equities. Automated Tool and Strategies are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This data highlights readings from the Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which covers over 75 shares and which is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis of all JSE-listed equities across 3 time frames: short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change, based on the development of the subsequent price action. Click on the image below to access the data, as of yesterday's close.
Thursday 30-November-2023, 11h59 Momentum Metropolitan - Target Reached. Original view (06 November), followed by the updated chart.
Thursday 30-November-2023, 08h52 Strategy Screen: Short Term Term - "Buyers On Control But Weakness On Lower Time Frame. Look For Pullback Toward 8/21 EMA (potential buy range) before next move higher". *A strategy screen is a filter derived from my Tactical Trading Guide which aims to highlight a share's technical position or groups certain shares according to their technical reading on the same time frame. The readings are subject to change, based on the subsequent price action/price development. The tickers are highlighted in the column to the far left.
Thursday 30-November-2023, 08h28 Gold Fields (GFI). Strong upside follow-through from bull flag, now approaching ultra short term overbought as per the short term rating screen + Tactical Trading Guide.
GFI: Upside Follow-Through + Tactical Trading Guide as of yesterday's close.
Thursday 30-November-2023, 08h15 Kumba Iron Ore (KIO). Update on trade idea (sell). Currently in the money. Yesterday the share reached a low of 58906c, which represented a downside move of 2329c from the suggested entry (price at the time of publication). To refresh, the levels were as follows: Sell = 61235c (price at the time of publication). Stop-loss = 63500c. Target = 57000c.
Thursday 30-November-2023, 08h10 DRD Gold. Update on trade idea (buy). Currently in the money. Yesterday the share reached a high of 1832c, which is represents a +7.7% gain from the entry (price at the time of publication). To refresh, the levels were as follows: Buy = 1700c (price at the time of publication). Stop-loss = 1555c. Target = 2000c.
Thursday 30-November-2023, 06h30 JSE Short Term Technical Ratings, as of yesterday's close.
Thursday 30-November-2023, 06h30 Tactical Trading Guide: JSE Equities. Automated Tool and Strategies are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This data highlights readings from the Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which covers over 75 shares and which is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis of all JSE-listed equities across 3 time frames: short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change, based on the development of the subsequent price action. Click on the image below to access the data, as of yesterday's close.
Wednesday 29-November-2023, 13h36 AVI Ltd Plc (AVI, 7942c). A consumer-related share approaching overbought conditions.
Wednesday 29-November-2023, 13h36 Shaftsbury Capital Plc (SHC, 2824c) Sustainable momentum for this locally-listed offshore-focused share?
Coming up later today... (1) A consumer-related share approaching overbought conditions ... (2) Sustainable momentum for this locally-listed offshore-focused share?
Wednesday 29-November-2023, 06h30 Bidvest Group (BVT, 24408c). Will the '3-Day Rule' apply + What does the Tactical Trading Guide say? The 3-day rule states that when a stock drops by “high single digits or more in terms of percent change,” investors give themselves three days before buying that stock. Yesterday, BVT was sold off significantly on high volume on the back of it's market update. My manual review of the share's price chart notes that the 23400c level has been a key demand/supply zone. We could possibly see further selling into this level before a short term base starts to develop. Considering the Tactical Trading Guide as at yesterday's close, the short and medium term readings are as follows. SHORT TERM: 'Aggressive selling, however the buy/long reward-to-risk may be attractive'. MEDIUM TERM: 'The share has been sold aggressively, look for a continued dip before a minor rebound'. Below are the readings for the short, medium and long term as of yesterday's close, followed by my view of the price chart/key levels.
Wednesday 29-November-2023, 06h30 Kumba Iron Ore (KIO). Update on trade idea (sell). Currently out of the money (for now). To refresh, the levels were as follows: Sell = 61235c (at the time of publication). Stop-loss = 63500c. Target = 57000c.
Wednesday 29-November-2023, 06h30 DRD Gold. Update on trade idea (buy). Currently in the money. Yesterday the share reached a high of 1790c, closing at 1766c by the close of trade. To refresh, the levels were as follows: Buy = 1700c (at the time of publication). Stop-loss = 1555c. Target = 2000c.
Wednesday 29-November-2023, 06h30 JSE Short Term Technical Ratings, as of yesterday's close.
Wednesday 29-November-2023, 06h30 Tactical Trading Guide: JSE Equities. Automated Tool and Strategies are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This data highlights readings from the Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which covers over 75 shares and which is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis of all JSE-listed equities across 3 time frames: short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change, based on the development of the subsequent price action. Click on the image below to access the data, as of yesterday's close.
Tuesday 28-November-2023, 06h30 JSE Short Term Technical Ratings, as of yesterday's close.
Tuesday 28-November-2023, 06h30 Tactical Trading Guide: JSE Equities. Automated Tool and Strategies are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This data highlights readings from the Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which covers over 75 shares and which is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis of all JSE-listed equities across 3 time frames: short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change, based on the development of the subsequent price action. Click on the image below to access the data, as of yesterday's close.
Monday 27-November-2023, 11h38 Trade Alert: DRD
Monday 27-November-2023, 10h31 Trade Alert: KIO
Monday 27-November-2023, 06h30 JSE Relative Sector Ratings, as of Friday's close.
Monday 27-November-2023, 06h30 JSE Short Term Technical Ratings, as of Friday's close.
Monday 27-November-2023, 06h30 Strategy Screen: Long Term - "Attempting a rebound following a downward trend. May stabilize (consolidated) further before continuing higher". *A strategy screen is a filter derived from my Tactical Trading Guide which aims to highlight a share's technical position or groups certain shares according to their technical reading on the same time frame. The readings are subject to change, based on the subsequent price action/price development. The tickers are highlighted in the column to the far left.
Monday 27-November-2023, 06h30 Strategy Screen: Medium Term - "Attempting a rebound following a downward trend. May stabilize (consolidated) further before continuing higher". *A strategy screen is a filter derived from my Tactical Trading Guide which aims to highlight a share's technical position or groups certain shares according to their technical reading on the same time frame. The readings are subject to change, based on the subsequent price action/price development. The tickers are highlighted in the column to the far left.
Monday 27-November-2023, 06h30 British American Tobacco (BTI, 60681c). Further Update. The share gave us two signals to potentially initiate a buy/long position: (1) An automated alert from the Tactical Trading Guide on 27-October and (2) a manual comment around the price having reclaimed it's 8/21-day EMA with a 'continuation buy/long' in view. We have since seen the price move from R548 to Friday's high of 60968c - a gain of +11% (ungeared).
Monday 27-November-2023, 06h30 Old Mutual (OMU, 1216c). The share remains in a constructive long term upward trend, with the price having experienced a minor 3-month pullback, which can be seen as a consolidation. This consolidation can also be seen as a precursor to potential upside continuation which would be triggered upon the breach of the well-defined channel. Here, supply has been 1235 to 1260c, which would be the next trigger range for the aforementioned upside continuation. As per the Tactical Trading Guide below, a range break would clarify the next directional move. These reading are as of Friday's close and are subject to change based on the development of the subsequent price action.
Monday 27-November-2023, 06h30 MTN Group (MTN). Downside target reached.
MTN - Tactical Trading Guide as of Friday's close.
Monday 27-November-2023, 06h30 Tactical Trading Guide: JSE Equities. Automated Tool and Strategies are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This data highlights readings from the Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which covers over 75 shares and which is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis of all JSE-listed equities across 3 time frames: short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change, based on the development of the subsequent price action. Click on the image below to access the data, as of yesterday's close.
Friday 24-November-2023, 08h32 Strategy Screen: Short Term - "Reward-to-risk becoming attractive for a buy/long position." *A strategy screen is a filter derived from my Tactical Trading Guide which aims to highlight a share's technical position or groups certain shares according to their technical reading on the same time frame. The readings are subject to change, based on the subsequent price action/price development. The tickers are highlighted in the column to the far left. Note: The Medium Term reading reflects weakness continuing to be in play.
Friday 24-November-2023, 08h28 Strategy Screen: Short Term - "Would Not Enter Buy/Long At Current Levels. The Reward-To-Risk Is Unappealing."*A strategy screen is a filter derived from my Tactical Trading Guide which aims to highlight a share's technical position or groups certain shares according to their technical reading on the same time frame. The readings are subject to change, based on the subsequent price action/price development. The tickers are highlighted in the column to the far left.
Friday 24-November-2023, 07h52 Strategy Screen: Short Term - "Attempting a bullish reversal following a consolidation phase."*A strategy screen is a filter derived from my Tactical Trading Guide which aims to highlight a share's technical position or groups certain shares according to their technical reading on the same time frame. The readings are subject to change, based on the subsequent price action/price development. The tickers are highlighted in the column to the far left.
Friday 24-November-2023, 06h30 JSE Short Term Technical Ratings, as of yesterday's close.
Friday 24-November-2023, 06h30 Northam Platinum (NPH, 12047c). Acting well within it's channels. Strong 2-day price action within a tight consolidation range. This can often lead to a breach of resistance and possibly a breakout.
Friday 24-November-2023, 06h30 AVI Ltd (AVI, 7937c). The bull flag highlighted on Monday 24 July has seen strong upside follow-through, with the share trading at 6708c at the time to yesterday's high of 7937c. At current levels, the share is nearing short term overbought levels, with a 7-day RSI of 77. Plotting a parallel channel, the share is approaching the upper boundary of the channel which would also be an overshoot of the swing highs December 2022, January 2023 and March 2023. Any further upside overshoot could open a potential short/sell opportunity.
Friday 24-November-2023, 06h30 Tactical Trading Guide: JSE Equities. Automated Tool and Strategies are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This data highlights readings from the Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which covers over 75 shares and which is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis of all JSE-listed equities across 3 time frames: short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change, based on the development of the subsequent price action. Click on the image below to access the data, as of yesterday's close.
Thursday 23-November-2023, 13h19 PIK update on buy/long trade idea. Traders are currently in the money by 7.80% (ungeared), with a high of 2637c today. As mentioned, traders could consider the following if/when the share approaches the target: 1. Bank/take Profit; 2. Partially scale out; 3. adjust the stop-loss to protect profits; Full target = 2740c; Entry was 2446c. The chart is 'current'.
Thursday 23-November-2023, 06h30 JSE Relative Sector Ratings, as of yesterday's close.
Thursday 23-November-2023, 06h30 JSE Short Term Technical Ratings, as of yesterday's close.
Thursday 23-November-2023, 06h30 JSE Banks (ex-Capitec) breaking down relative to the JSE Top 40 Index (J200). (1) The trend line extending back to the May lows have been breached (2) 14-day RSI at 40 (weak) (3) this ration chart is also below it's 21/50-Day EMA, both of which are losing upside momentum. Why is this chart relevant? It gives us insight into positioning + shows that banks are starting to underperform on a relative basis vs the broader market.
Thursday 23-November-2023, 06h30 Anheuser Busch-Inbev (ANH). Not all trades work immediately (some take longer than than others). ANH (buy/long on 06 July, yellow vertical line) is a an example of such. It traded sideways before moving slightly lower followed by aggressive buying. Currently, the share is overbought, with the Tactical Trading Guide as of yesterday's close stating the following:
Thursday 23-November-2023, 06h30 Tactical Trading Guide: JSE Equities. Automated Tool and Strategies are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This data highlights readings from the Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which covers over 75 shares and which is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis of all JSE-listed equities across 3 time frames: short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change, based on the development of the subsequent price action. Click on the image below to access the data, as of yesterday's close.
Wednesday 22-November-2023, 08h44 Glencore Similar To BHG Group? No commentary required as the charts speak for themselves.
Wednesday 22-November-2023, 08h25 Aspen Pharmacare (APN, 17310c). On 05-Sept-2023 I highlighted APN with a view that a print in the R160-R164 range could an opportunity to accumulate for the rebound. The share traded into this range (printing a low of R161) before rebounding strong. Both the original and updated charts are shown below:
Aspen Pharmacare as of yesterday's close.
Aspen Pharmacare. Updated Review. The share has rebounded off the demand-supply zone and trades in the middle of it's parallel channel. Within this channel, a smaller downward consolidation channel has developed, which if breached, could see a continuation of the of the recent upward move. Strong candle structure and a position above the move averages would be required. My updated view of the share is shown below:
Wednesday 22-November-2023, 06h30 JSE Short Term Technical Ratings, as of yesterday's close.
Wednesday 22-November-2023, 06h30 Sibanye Stillwater - Skyscraper View. Nearly two years ago (19 December 2021) I published the monthly chart (see original view below) highlighting the price being capped by it's (then) recently formed downward trend line. From the upper boundary of the channel, the price has gradually drifted toward the mid-point, followed by an acceleration toward the lower boundary. The second chart below shows the monthly chart as of yesterday's close which highlights the parallel channel (high/low points aligning with the parallel lines). Is it oversold? Yes. Can It trade lower? Yes. What level is the lower boundary of the range 1300c-1500c. Will it trade there? It's a tough one to call however I've also added yesterday's end of day tactical trading guide for the share. Please see it below the charts.
SSW - 22 November 2023 (below)
Wednesday 22-November-2023, 06h30 Gold Fields (GFI). Strong Price + Bull Flag Breakout. Below are the readings from the Tactical Trading Guide + the chart.
Wednesday 22-November-2023, 06h30 Momentum-Metropolitan (MTM). Further Update - Bearish reversal underway.
Wednesday 22-November-2023, 06h30 Tactical Trading Guide: JSE Equities. Automated Tool and Strategies are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This data highlights readings from the Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which covers over 75 shares and which is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis of all JSE-listed equities across 3 time frames: short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change, based on the development of the subsequent price action. Click on the image below to access the data, as of yesterday's close.
Tuesday 21-November-2023, 13h19 Trade Alert: SPDR Metals & Mining ETF (XME)
Tuesday 21-November-2023, 08h20 MTN Group (MTN, 9584c). Technical Observation. The 14-day RSI is printing it's highest level since 22 August. This is a improved short term development and bodes well for a potential stabilization price and potential short term recovery.
Tuesday 21-November-2023, 08h03 Strategy Screen: Medium Term: "Strong attempt at a bullish reversal following a consolidation phase."*A strategy screen is a filter derived from my Tactical Trading Guide which aims to highlight a share's technical position or groups certain shares according to their technical reading on the same time frame. The readings are subject to change, based on the subsequent price action/price development. The tickers are highlighted in the column to the far left.
Tuesday 21-November-2023, 07h50 Invesco Solar ETF (TAN). WEEKLY CHART. Clean energy has been one of the worst sectors to allocate capital to. Could that be changing over the medium term? The ETF has been building a base and is recovering off inflection points.
Tuesday 21-November-2023, 07h35 Tencent Holdings (Code: 0700). This comment is a further update to my note on 01 August - in case you may have missed it, click here to read it. At current levels, the share has seen an improvement in it's short term candle structure and a 3rd re-test of the trend line which forms part of the gradual downward channel. Below is the LONG TERM reading from the Tactical Trading Guide as of 07:22am this morning which states the following: "Attempting a bullish reversal following a steady downward trend".
Tuesday 21-November-2023, 07h35 KraneShares Trust CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB). Sticking the theme of China technology, the chart of the KWEB ETF also reflects an attempt to change it's trend from bearish/neutral to bullish.
Tuesday 21-November-2023, 07h11 NewGold PLATINUM ETF (NGPLT) - it is said: 'from failed moves comes fast moves'. The ETF may possibly be developing a failed breakdown from the neckline of a topping structure. These are often great setups to participate in bullish reversals. Here, the key level to reclaim and retain is 15950.
Tuesday 21-November-2023, 06h30 JSE Short Term Technical Ratings, as of yesterday's close.
Tuesday 21-November-2023, 06h30 Tactical Trading Guide: JSE Equities. Automated Tool and Strategies are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This data highlights readings from the Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which covers over 75 shares and which is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis of all JSE-listed equities across 3 time frames: short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change, based on the development of the subsequent price action. Click on the image below to access the data, as of yesterday's close.
Monday 20-November-2023, 11h36 Trade Idea: Buy PIK (published via CMS)
Monday 20-November-2023, 10h40 Trade Idea: Buy iShares UK ETF (published via CMS).
Monday 20-November-2023, 06h30 JSE Relative Sector Ratings, as of Friday's close.
Monday 20-November-2023, 06h30 JSE Short Term Technical Ratings, as of Friday's close.
Monday 20-November-2023, 06h30 Richemont (CFR, 233102c). Best closing level in 5 weeks. I published this chart one month ago (20-October). Since then, the group reported results, with the share being sold off on the day. It has since managed to remain within it's trading range, which is also in line with the lower boundary of the upward trending channel (support). The 3-day MACD has developed a positive crossover, which supports the potential for a short to medium term share price recovery. Below is the Tactical Trading Guide for the 3 time frames.
Monday 20-November-2023, 06h30 Strategy Screen: Long Term: "After a general downward trend, some buyers are showing interest." *A strategy screen is a filter derived from my Tactical Trading Guide which aims to highlight a share's technical position or groups certain shares according to their technical reading on the same time frame. The readings are subject to change, based on the subsequent price action/price development. The tickers are highlighted in the column to the far left.
Monday 20-November-2023, 06h30 Glencore Plc (GLN, 10669c). The candle structure/price action among resource shares have improved. A few weeks ago I discussed the relative performance of the group vs the market while last week (Thursday) I mentioned Anglo American Plc (AGL) as a buy (as part of a pair) vs Kumba Iron Ore (KIO). Glencore has rebounded from the lower boundary of it's upward trending channel and is testing the peak on 24 January at 12433c. As per the data below, the share is in a high bullish momentum phase while also approaching an overbought range in the SHORT TERM. It may however be worthwhile paying attention to the MEDIUM and LONG TERM readings. Please see below (highlighted in yellow).
Monday 20-November-2023, 06h30 TFG vs TRU - Market Neutral/Pairs Trade View. Over the long term, the two pairs have been closely correlated, however over 3 years, the performance outcome has diverged. TRIU is higher by 96% while TFG has lagged, rising only 7.8%. Is there is an opportunity, on a relative basis, to buy TFG while simultaneously selling TRU?
Monday 20-November-2023, 06h30 Sasol (SOL). Update. I published a buy/long at 22571c, with a target of 24300c. The share traded as high as 24084c which means that 87% of my target was reached. As mentioned on the group on Wednesday at 9:34am: "...traders are currently in the money by +1411c or +6.2% (ungeared), with the share reaching a high of 23982c this morning. The full target is 24300c. The suggested buy/long entry was 22571c. As the share heads higher, traders could consider the following: (1) Bank/Take Profit (2) Partially scale out (3) Adjust the stop-loss to protect profits." Crude Oil rebound by over 4% on Friday hence we could see Sasol put in a minor rebound.
Monday 20-November-2023, 06h30 Monday 20-November-2023, 06h30 Triple Bottom Technical Formations For The Asset Managers. With record cash on the sidelines, a rise in risk assets and the recent move lower in yields, can asset managers finally have their share prices participate? Of particular interest is the potential triple bottoms on NY1, CML and QLT.
Ninety One Ltd (NY1, 4123c). I drew the lines on this chart however the share moved before I could include it in my notes.
Quilter Plc (QLT, 2078c)
Coronation Fund Managers (CML, 3274c). You may have seen that one of it's subsidiaries is engaged in a dispute with SARS.
Monday 20-November-2023, 06h30 Tactical Trading Guide: JSE Equities. Automated Tool and Strategies are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This data highlights readings from the Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which covers over 75 shares and which is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis of all JSE-listed equities across 3 time frames: short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change, based on the development of the subsequent price action. Click on the image below to access the data, as of yesterday's close.
Sunday 19-November-2023, 22h00 (Pre-Market Asian Session) Tactical Trading Guide: Major FX Pairs. *The readings are subject to change as the price action develops.
Friday 17-November-2023, 06h30 Making Money With Mr. Price (MRP). At one point during yesterday's session, the share was down by 6.1% from the previous day's close. By the end of the session, the share was lower by 4.82%. On this page yesterday morning, MRP was a share I specifically discussed, highlighting it's short term overbought rating. You may wonder how I picked up on this opportunity? Two data points informed my view: (1) the Technical Summary which showed the share in the overbought category and (2) the Tactical Trading Guide which provided readings across 3 time frames: short, medium and long term. Since we are primarily short term traders who seek to generate cash flow from price volatility, we mostly focus on the data/readings for the short and medium term time frame. As you may have seen, the short term reading stated the following: "Do not enter buy/long here. The reward-to-risk is unappealing" while the medium term reading was as follows: "The general trend is up, however, look for failure to hold the prior session highs to initiate a 1-2 day short/sell setup". Here, failing to hold the prior session highs in an overbought range was key to anyone who looked to initiate a short/sell trade. From a research insight perspective, technology and automation allows me to inform you about potential opportunities for over 75 JSE listed shares. In some cases, this is then combined with my manual review of specific opportunities which I wish to highlight. On a daily basis, both the Technical Ratings Summary Screen and the Tactical Trading Guide is published to make available to you, the client, which serves as a guide to your trading. This how I'm finding opportunity, so that you as our client, can do what you aim to do, which is to simply make money.
Friday 17-November-2023, 06h30. Reinet Investments (RNI). As of yesterday's close, the share is in a short term high bullish momentum regime while approaching overbought. It's entirely possible that the share could trade higher on an intraday basis, however, traders want to look for an overshoot to the upside and a failure to hold the prior session highs. This could open up an opportunity to short/sell and participate if the share develops a bearish reversal. Yesterday's end of reading was as follows:
Friday 17-November-2023, 06h30. Long Netcare, Short Life Healthcare. Update. I discussed this opportunity on 07 September, which, looking back, was the day that the pair bottomed. This idea is higher by 19%.
Friday 17-November-2023, 06h30 Life Healthcare (LHC, 1756c) Yesterday the share sold off sharply (-7.56%) on the back of it's results. Technically, here are two items to note: (1) the gap created on 15 February is close to be filled and (2) the Tactical Trading Guide for both the short and medium term time frames state the following: "Reward-to-risk becoming attractive for a buy/long position". It's possible that the share continues to weak however it may be worth keeping in mind the two aforementioned factors for a potential bullish reversal trade. I'm placing this name on my watchlist.
Life Healthcare Daily Chart - Highlighting the pending gap close within the parallel channel.
Friday 17-November-2023, 06h30 Capitec Bank (CPI). 3 Points To Note: The potential price path highlighted a few days ago (black arrow) is being followed with the share having traded higher in recent days. Here are 3 points to note: (1) A bearish inside bar which may signal a slowdown in upward momentum and the start of a short term bearish reversal (2) the share is at the upper boundary of the channel + overhead swing high (3) The Tactical Trading Guide for the short term states the following: "Buyers in control but weakness on the lower time frame. Look for a pullback to the 8/21-EMA before the next move higher". Note: The 21-EMA is at R1838 at the last close. This represents 5.8% downside from current levels, should the share see a pullback toward this range.
Friday 17-November-2023, 06h30 Tactical Trading Guide. Automated Tool and Strategies are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This data highlights readings from the Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which covers over 75 shares and which is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis of all JSE-listed equities across 3 time frames: short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change, based on the development of the subsequent price action. Click on the image below to access the data, as of yesterday's close.
Friday 17-November-2023, 06h30 JSE Short Term Technical Ratings, as of yesterday's close.
Thursday 16-November-2023, 07h31 Strategy Screen: Long Term: "After a general downward trend, some buyers are showing interest." *A strategy screen is a filter derived from my Tactical Trading Guide which aims to highlight a share's technical position or groups certain shares according to their technical reading on the same time frame. The readings are subject to change, based on the subsequent price action/price development. The tickers are highlighted in the column to the far left.
Thursday 16-November-2023, 07h01 Mondi Plc. When Mondi dropped by 6.8% on Thursday 19 October, the end of day reading via the Tactical Trading Guide was as follows: "Aggressive selling recently however, the buy/long reward-to-risk may be attractive" (see the extract below). Since then, the share rallied from 28998c to yesterday's high of 32642c - a 12% ungeared gain in just under 4 weeks.
Mondi Plc (MNP): At yesterday's close, the share appeared in the overbought category, on the short term time frame, with the following reading:
Mondi Plc (MNP): Also at yesterday's close, the share showed the following reading for the long term:
Mondi Plc (MNP) Bottom Line: while the medium to long term technical structure appears positive, short term overbought conditions could offer an opportunity to trade on the short (sell) side.
Thursday 16-November-2023, 06h30 JSE Short Term Technical Ratings, as of yesterday's close.
Thursday 16-November-2023, 06h30 Mr. Price (MRP). Over the medium term, a positive trend has developed however, if your time frame is short enough you can consider a short/sell as it is overbought. Short, Medium and Long Term Comments on the share can be seen on the table from my Tactical Trading Guide below. *A strategy screen is a filter derived from my Tactical Trading Guide which aims to highlight a share's technical position or groups certain shares according to their technical reading on the same time frame. The readings are subject to change, based on the subsequent price action/price development.
Thursday 16-November-2023, 06h30 Copper Futures (HG). Each time it got down to $3.55, buyers stepped in. Recently, the commodity emerged from a falling wedge technical formation and is now attempting to work itself out of a 2 month base. Can they push it above $3.75?
Thursday 16-November-2023, 06h30 Performance: AGL vs KIO over 3 months. AGL flat vs KIO +30%. Historically, the two shares are closely correlated. Is there an opportunity for a market neutral/pairs trade for a potential closing of the gap? i.e. Buy AGL vs Sell KIO.
Ratio at last close: 0.8860.
This morning, these were some of the headlines around Iron Ore (Source: TradingView)
Thursday 16-November-2023, 06h30 U.S Global JETS ETF - Target reached for a 12% Gain.
Bank/Take Profit.
Thursday 16-November-2023, 06h30 Tactical Trading Guide. Automated Tool and Strategies are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This data highlights readings from the Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which covers over 75 shares and which is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis of all JSE-listed equities across 3 time frames: short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change, based on the development of the subsequent price action. Click on the image below to access the data, as of yesterday's close.
Wednesday 15-November-2023, 09h34 Thungela Resources TGA. Bank/Take Profit.
Target exceeded, with a high of 16800c this morning. Well done to all who took advantage of the opportunity to trade.
Wednesday 15-November-2023, 09h34 Sasol SOL - Traders are currently in the money by +1411c or +6.2% (ungeared), with the share reaching a high of 23982c this morning. The full target is 24300c. The suggested buy/long entry was 22571c. As the share heads higher, traders could consider the following: (1) Bank/Take Profit (2) Partially scale out (3) Adjust the stop-loss to protect profits. Well done to all who took advantage of the opportunity to trade.
Wednesday 15-November-2023, 06h30 JSE Short Term Technical Ratings, as of yesterday's close.
Wednesday 15-November-2023, 06h30 Hammerson Plc (HMN). Update. On Sunday afternoon I published the chart of Hammerson, with a bullish view that the share has the potential to break out of a multi-month channel. Yesterday the share rallied (+15%) on potential corporate action (in talks to sell stake in Value Retail for $1.2bn).
Hammerson PLC (HMN) - as per my view on Sunday.
Wednesday 15-November-2023, 06h30 US 10-Year Bond Yield (US10Y). Downside target reached (lower boundary of channel) / bearish candle structure as inflation comes in lower than consensus expectations. Lower yields = higher equities.
Wednesday 15-November-2023, 06h30 Strategy Screen: [SHORT TERM]. "Attempting a bullish reversal following a consolidation phase." *A strategy screen is a filter derived from my Tactical Trading Guide which aims to highlight a share's technical position or groups certain shares according to their technical reading on the same time frame. The readings are subject to change, based on the subsequent price action/price development. The tickers are highlighted in the column to the far left.
Wednesday 15-November-2023, 06h30 KIO. At current levels (as per the short term time frame), the share appears extremely overbought. The 14-day RSI is at 75 and the share is trading 21% above it's 75-day EMA. The reading as per the Tactical Trading Guide for the SHORT TERM and MEDIUM TERM is as follows:
Clients of Unum Capital were alerted to a buy/long setup at R398 in early September. The share reached a high of R579 during yesterday's trading session. The original chart is highlighted below.
Wednesday 15-November-2023, 06h30 Tactical Trading Guide. Automated Tool and Strategies are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This data highlights readings from the Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which covers over 75 shares and which is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis of all JSE-listed equities across 3 time frames: short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change, based on the development of the subsequent price action. Click on the image below to access the data, as of yesterday's close.
Tuesday 14-November-2023, 07h59 African Rainbow Minerals (ARI). In Q1 2023, Unum Capital clients were alerted to the potential relative underperformance of ARI vs the broader market. Since then, the share declined by 42% to it's recent lows. The relative/ratio chart at the time (07 March 2023) is highlighted below.
African Rainbow Minerals (ARI). On an absolute basis (at current levels), the share's attempt to emerge from it's bear channel may be indicative of a potential change of trend. The chart, as of yesterday's close is highlighted below:
Tuesday 14-November-2023, 06h30 JSE Short Term Technical Ratings, as of yesterday's close.
Tuesday 14-November-2023, 06h30 JSE Tech vs Top 40 Index. The chart below is the JSE Technology Sector relative to the JSE Top 40 Index and as well as the ratio's distance vs it's 75-Day EMA and 200-Day SMA. Here, I highlight the technology (NPN, PRX) having traded in a year-to-date sideways range and testing the overhead resistance for the 5th time. As you may already know, persistent tests of a level may eventually lead to the level being breached. In this case, it would mean that the constituents will outperform the JSE Top 40 Index on a relative basis.
Tuesday 14-November-2023, 06h30 Sasol (SOL). Update on Buy/Long Idea. Traders are currently in the money, with Monday's close at 23007c. Suggested entry was 22571c or lower. The share was the 4th best performer on the JSE Top 40 during yesterday's session. As always, traders could consider the following if/when the share approaches the target: bank/take Profit, partially scale out, adjust the stop-loss to protect profits.
Tuesday 14-November-2023, 06h30 Thungela Resources (TGA). Update on Buy/Long Idea. Traders are currently in the money. Recommended last Wednesday on the day that it found a bottom (15232c). It has started to emerge from an ultra short term oversold range, hitting a high of 15966c during yesterday's trading session. As always, traders could consider the following if/when the share approaches the target: bank/take Profit, partially scale out, adjust the stop-loss to protect profits.
Tuesday 14-November-2023, 06h30 Strategy Screen: [SHORT TERM]. "There has been aggressive buying in the share, however do not chase at current levels. Monitor for an overshoot to the upside or a failure to hold the prior session highs, which may provide an opportunity to short/sell back to the 8-day EMA/lower levels." *A strategy screen is a filter derived from my Tactical Trading Guide which aims to highlight a share's technical position or groups certain shares according to their technical reading on the same time frame. The readings are subject to change, based on the subsequent price action/price development. The tickers are highlighted in the column to the far left.
Tuesday 14-November-2023, 06h30 Strategy Screen: [SHORT TERM]. "Attempting to advance while in a bullish regime. If it pulls back, consider using the prior session close or 8-EMA as an accumulation zone". *A strategy screen is a filter derived from my Tactical Trading Guide which aims to highlight a share's technical position or groups certain shares according to their technical reading on the same time frame. The readings are subject to change, based on the subsequent price action/price development. The tickers are highlighted in the column to the far left.
Tuesday 14-November-2023, 06h30 JSE Relative Sector Ratings, as of yesterday's close.
Tuesday 14-November-2023, 06h30 Tactical Trading Guide. Automated Tool and Strategies are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This data highlights readings from the Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which covers over 75 shares and which is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis of all JSE-listed equities across 3 time frames: short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change, based on the development of the subsequent price action. Click on the image below to access the data, as of yesterday's close.
Monday 13-November-2023, 06h30 Analyst Thoughts: As we entered last week, the technical summary gave us a clue as to the reward-to-risk on both the long (buy) and short (sell) side. This was reflected through (1) Market Breadth, which showed an high-than-average number of shares in an overbought and high bullish momentum/approaching overbought regime while some names held a 'strong' technical rating. The long side reward-to-risk was unappealing as few names traded in the high bearish momentum/oversold regime. Gradually, over the course of the week, we saw some constituents unwind from their overbought positions, giving traders the opportunity to take advantage of the downside moves. From a macro perspective, the lower yields and lower oil prices projected the view that an acceleration in the global economy was underway. While I am cognizant of the macroeconomic news flow, my belief is that the clients can benefit and profit from focusing on the price and price action of the shares that we trade. Coming into this week, there is a balance between regimes with most constituents equally spread across the 'strong', neutral', and 'weak' categories. Overall, this may reflect shares that are in a consolidation phase. In this case, traders want to look for breaks of ranges to trigger the next directional moves both the long and short side. The Tactical Trading Guide can be used as a tool to determine the position of each share. Readings are subject to change and are updated at the end of each trading session. Alternatively, the Tactical Trading Guide can be accessed as a live tool on the telegram group.
Monday 13-November-2023, 06h30 US 10-Year Bond Yield. Some of the biggest and most influential investors in the world consider the US10Y to be one of the most important instruments to monitor. Equity traders can create an advantage for themselves by actively monitoring the level of interest rates and bond yields in order to effective assess the reward-to-risk of the market environment. Since my last note at 4.83%, bonds rallied (yields lower) with the price moving toward a low of 4.47%. This was the reason for the rally in global stocks, specifically the S&P 500 and Nasdaq which advanced for 9 consecutive sessions. At current levels, the bond yield trades near the lower boundary of the channel formation and just above the prior breakout level which is around 4.40%.
Monday 13-November-2023, 06h30 JSE Short Term Technical Ratings, as at Friday's close.
Monday 13-November-2023, 06h30 JSE Relative Sector Ratings, as of Friday's close.
Monday 13-November-2023, 06h30 Anglo American Plc (AGL, 45784c). I wrote about AGL at the beginning of the year (17 January), highlighting the overbought nature of the share which coincided with price trading at the upper boundary of it's long term resistance channel. The share is down at multi-month lows, having declined from +R770 to a recent low of R462 (a 40% decline).
Below, I take a look at AGL from two angles.
AGL Chart #1. Getting close to an inflection point at the lower boundary of a channel.
AGL Chart #2. Breaking down from a multi-year topping structure. Minor support at 42500c.
Monday 13-November-2023, 06h30 Commodities: Multi-Time Frame Ratings
Monday 13-November-2023, 06h30 Satrix Resources (STXRES, 5449c). Zooming and taking a skyscraper view, you'll notice that the group/sector is trading at the upper boundary of a multi-year range. While short term rebounds are possible, it is also breaking down from a medium term topping structure while also trading near the mid-point of a large upward trending channel. This is the monthly chart.
Monday 13-November-2023, 06h30 Satrix Property (STXPRO, 848c). (1) Channel Break Pending? (2) Strength Ahead?. It may be worthwhile to pay attention to the current structure. Weekly Chart.
Monday 13-November-2023, 06h30 Hammerson Plc (HMN, 552c): (1) 1-Year sideways consolidation (2) Potential breakout from short term bear channel. Watchlist Addition.
Monday 13-November-2023, 06h30 Relative/Ratio Chart: Satrix Financials (STXFIN) vs JSE Top 40 Index (J200). Holding the breakout from the December 2018 downward trend.
Monday 13-November-2023, 06h30 Old Mutual (OMU, 1208c). Two angles: (1) the potential for a failed head and shoulder technical formation. Failed H&S formation are often considered bullish setups. Here, clearing 1250c could fuel momentum buyers. (2) The share has been trading in a well-defined upward channel (blue shaded area) while the more recent trend has been one of consolidation (red shaded area). A breach of the red channel may too, fuel buyers looking for a change of trend.
Monday 13-November-2023, 06h30 Clicks Group (CLS, 28600c). Update. The position of a price vs a trend line as well as the share's technical rating can provide valuable insight into a trader's subsequent course of action. The previous highlighted trend line resistance was held and the share has started to unwind from a short term overbought condition. On Friday the share found some support on it's 8-EMA but my assessment is that the EMA is likely to be breach, with some support to be found lower at the rising 21-EMA (blue shaded area around 27200c).
Monday 13-November-2023, 06h30 Natural Gas Futures (NG). (Client Request). The commodity is trading in the mid-point of it's gradually upward trending channel, which gives it a neutral rating over the meidum term. Over the ultra short term, a high bearish momentum rating is in place with the commodity havibg retraced from it's highs. An unfilled gap is in place at $2.66 which has the potential to be filled while support is slightly higher at $2.85.
Monday 13-November-2023, 06h30 Tactical Trading Guide. Automated Tool and Strategies are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This data highlights readings from the Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which covers over 75 shares and which is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis of all JSE-listed equities across 3 time frames: short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change, based on the development of the subsequent price action. Click on the image below to access the data, as of yesterday's close.
Monday 13-November-2023, 06h30 Resource Centre
Monday 13-November-2023, 06h30 PREMIUM PERSPECTIVES 🔒 Trendlines, specifically those that form part of parallel channels, can be effective in identifying optimal reward-to-risk opportunities on both the buy (long) and sell (short) side. This chart is on my WATCHLIST for potential swing buy long. lester@unum.co.za.
Friday 10-November-2023, 06h30 Strategy Screen: [SHORT TERM]. Consolidating within an upward trend. If the 8-EMA has been breached, use the 21-EMA as a potential buy/range. *A strategy screen is a filter derived from my Tactical Trading Guide which aims to highlight a share's technical position or groups certain shares according to their technical reading on the same time frame. The readings are subject to change, based on the subsequent price action/price development.
Friday 10-November-2023, 06h30 Sappi (SAP). Update. In Sunday afternoon's note I highlighted the share which traded at the lower boundary of it's parallel channel. This followed the sharp unwind from overhead supply on 17 October. Yesterday, the group reported results, with the market responding positively, pushing the share higher by over 7% at one point during yesterday's session. The chart below is SAP yesterday morning at 10h57 as it traded +7% (it came off the highs closing +4.91% for the session). Well done if caught the bullish reversal.
Friday 10-November-2023, 06h30 Tactical Trading Guide. Automated Tool and Strategies are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This data highlights readings from the Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which covers over 75 shares and which is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis of all JSE-listed equities across 3 time frames: short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change, based on the development of the subsequent price action. Click on the image below to access the data, as of yesterday's close.
Friday 10-November-2023, 06h30 JSE Short Term Technical Ratings, as at yesterday's close.
Thursday 09-November-2023, 08h05 Strategy Screen: Thungela Resources. See Short Term and Medium Term Columns. *A strategy screen is a filter derived from my Tactical Trading Guide which aims to highlight a share's technical position or groups certain shares according to their technical reading on the same time frame.
Thursday 09-November-2023, 07h48 Standard Deviation Screen: Capitec Bank (CPI)
Further to my CPI view, the following was my comment on Monday premarket: Capitec Bank (CPI, 185494c). Short Term = High bullish momentum. The share is nearing the the upper boundary of it's parallel channel, which is in line with the previous demand-supply zone (circled areas). It could and is likely to overshoot this range however this could open up an opportunity for a tactical short/sell at or around the aforementioned resistance zone.
Thursday 09-November-2023, 07h22 Strategy Screen: Dis-Chem Pharmacies (DCP). *A strategy screen is a filter derived from my Tactical Trading Guide which aims to highlight a share's technical position or groups certain shares according to their technical reading on the same time frame.
Thursday 09-November-2023, 06h30 JSE Relative Sector Ratings, as of yesterday's close.
Thursday 09-November-2023, 06h30 JSE Sector Trends vs Market (JSE Top 40 Index)
Thursday 09-November-2023, 06h30 British American Tobacco (BTI, 57702c). On the telegram group on 15 September, I alerted clients to a bank/take profit. Unbeknownst at the time, this was the same day on which the share peaked, which was followed by a downward trend from R644 to a low of R548. The share has since develop higher lows while yesterday's candle was a 'positive tell' in the upward trend. The share also closed above it's 8/21-EMA and just below the resistance that has been in place since 13 October. I don't see why the share cannot attempt to make a push back to R600 or above.
Thursday 09-November-2023, 06h30 Pick n Pay (PIK, 2553c). High Speculative View On A Sector Laggard. In a similar manner to the downside extension and bottom of 01 June 2023, the share recently traded 26% below it's 75-day EMA versus a distance of 24% on 01 June. The medium to long term trend has been down, however the current extension the 75-day moving average may offer an opportunity to participate in an upside bullish reversal off oversold levels. The candle structure for the last 2 weeks has been positive, characterized by doji's and long lower tails which may suggest buying interest following the share's plunge. The upside pivot is between 2580c and 2620c. Clearing these levels would support a move toward the share closing an unfilled gap at 2962c.
Thursday 09-November-2023, 06h30 Pepkor Holdings (PPH, 1840c). The candle structure for the last 3 trading sessions reflect possible indecision following a strong push higher. The share is in a short term high bullish momentum phase while also approaching an overbought range. One price action scenario is that the share could attempt to break above the range highs (+1865c) followed by a failure to hold above this range i.e. a false breakout. Also note that the share is trading near the upper boundary of it's 50-day 2 standard deviation linear regression channel. On an intraday basis, breaking and holding below 1835c on an intraday basis, would suggest that the share is losing upside momentum and that seller have taken control of the price action.
Thursday 09-November-2023, 06h30 Tactical Trading Guide. Automated Tool and Strategies are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This data highlights readings from the Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which covers over 75 shares and which is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis of all JSE-listed equities across 3 time frames: short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change, based on the development of the subsequent price action. Click on the image below to access the data, as of yesterday's close.
Thursday 09-November-2023, 06h30 JSE Short Term Technical Ratings, as at yesterday's close.
Wednesday 08-November-2023, 13h09 Thungela Resources Buy Idea via CMS. Also published to Telegram group.
Wednesday 08-November-2023, 10h35 Sasol Buy Idea via CMS. Also published to Telegram group.
Wednesday 08-November-2023, 07h15 Tiger Brands (TBS, 17058c). Rejection In An Overbought Range. We have seen a reversal an strong upside follow-through with the share appreciating from the buy signal at 14332c (via the Tactical Trading Guide, see extract below) to the recent high of 17639c where OVERBOUGHT conditions were present. My provisional zone for a short term buy/long re-entry for clients is R161 to R163.
Wednesday 08-November-2023, 06h30 Tactical Trading Guide. Automated Tool and Strategies are used to identify potential trading opportunities as well as highlight potentially significant technical developments across various time frames. This data highlights readings from the Tactical Trading Guide (Price Action Tool) which covers over 75 shares and which is also available as a live tool via the telegram group. The tool provides automated price analysis of all JSE-listed equities across 3 time frames: short (short term), medium (medium term) and long (long term). Readings are subject to change, based on the development of the subsequent price action. Click on the image below to access the data, as of yesterday's close.
Tuesday 07-November-2023, 22h30 Key Markets. To Read The Full Post, Click On The Image Below:
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