Monday 11 November 2024
Time Published: Pre-Market
On 27 September (see insert), I flagged the index trading in a short term overbought range. The market peaked on this day and has since traded in a consolidation range, while recently accelerating it's bearish bias with the bear flag breaking down. The candle structure remains poor however, the index is approaching it's swing low from 09 October around 76641. I amn expecting print below this level however, traders should also remain open-minded for the potential of a reclaim of these lows that could spark an ultra short term relief rebound. Note: the index is trading just above it's 75-day EMA which coincides with the aforementioned swing low. As always, we adjust in real-time, as the price action and news flow develops.
Previous Post: This Is The Current Risk Level
Friday 08 November 2024
Time Published: 10h13
This Is The Current Risk Level Following The Bear Flag Breakdown
Trading in a 6-week consolidation + continues to unwind from overbought as well as the bear flag breakdown / risk level = 77222 / below the 21-day EMA which has started to slope down.
Previous Post
Thursday 31 October 2024
Time Published: Pre-Market
At the beginning of this week, I discussed the potential formation of a bear flag structure, that is vulnerable to triggering upon a breached of the incline support which extends back to the 08 and 09 October swing lows. On Tuesday we saw some early weakness while yesterday saw a breached of the upward trend. the index closed off the lows of the day, but still near the range lows which extended back to Friday 18 October. Here, breaching horizontal support of 78530 could mark the start of a further downside move and an acceleration of the bear flag structure. I am however mindful that a change of character is possible and would watch if weakness below the break is bought - say, a false breakdown? Bottom line: I remain open-minded.
This below slide was included in my report, "The Sum of the Charts" dated Monday, 28 October 2024.
To access the report, email lester@unum.co.za
Lester Davids
Analyst: Unum Capital
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