Trade Commodities with Unum Capital.
To get started, email lester@unum.co.za
We have a long history discussing Copper, since the lows during Covid at $2.31.
This is an update.
For today, 2x Charts.
Previous Post: Copper - Your Questions Answered (14 January 2025)
Here's a summary of the price action model for Copper Futures:
Q: What is the overall trend of Copper Futures? A: The overall trend is Bullish.
Q: What is the current 7-day trend? A: The current 7-day trend is Overbought.
Q: What is the current 14-day trend? A: The current 14-day trend is Very Bullish.
Q: Is there any opportunity for a short-term buy/long position? A: Yes, there is a potential opportunity for a short-term buy/long position. The model suggests looking for a pullback to the 8 or 21 EMA (Exponential Moving Average) as a potential entry point for the next move higher.
Q: What is the outlook for the medium term (2 to 4 weeks)? A: For the medium term, the advice is to expect a steady upward trend. It's recommended to apply daily/weekly moving averages where applicable.
Q: What is the outlook for the long term (5 to 8 weeks)? A: In the long term, the advice is to anticipate a continuation of the bullish regime. If Copper Futures pull back, the model suggests using the prior session close or the 8-EMA as an accumulation zone. It's recommended to apply weekly moving averages and time frames (not daily).
In summary: The price action model for Copper Futures indicates a bullish overall trend with a short-term overbought condition. Traders are advised to look for potential pullbacks to enter long positions. The medium-term outlook is for a steady upward trend, while the long-term expectation is for a continuation of the bullish regime.
Previous Post: This Is How I'm Looking At Copper + Updated Target
Thursday, 03 October 2024
Time Published: 19h26
Great comeback on the back of the Chinese stimulus announcement, with the continued development of a +3 year base.
Measured move target (medium/long term) = $6.60
Previous Post: Tuesday, 24 September at 11H16
The People's Bank of China (PBoC) introduced several measures to boost the economy amid concerns that the official growth target of around 5% might be out of reach due to recent weak data. Governor Pan Gongsheng said in a media briefing today that the central bank will cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50bps, which will inject CNY 1 trillion into the financial system, with the possibility of another reduction of 0.25 to 0.5 ppts later this year. In addition, the PBoC will lower the seven-day reverse repo rate by 20bps to 1.5%, aiming to reduce short-term borrowing costs for banks. This move is accompanied by a 30bps reduction in borrowing costs of the medium-term lending facility. Mortgage rates will also be trimmed, with an expected average drop of 50bps, and the minimum down payment for second homes will be cut to 15% from 25%. Pan did not specify when the moves will take effect. Tuesday's action came after the US Fed started its monetary easing cycle with a large rate cut - Source: TradingEconomics
Previous Post (26 August 2024)
US Trading Session (Mon, 26-Aug-2024), Time: 19h00 (S/Africa)
Was $3.95 vs a multi-week high of $4.23 today.
Previous Post (07 August 2024)
Real-Time: 14h36
Trading at it's previous breakout level.
Previous Post:
UPDATE: Copper has retraced from it's short and medium term overbought levels, having traded above $5.00. This follows an impressive run, one that we discussed on 16 November 2023. The automated model gave us a reading on 15 May, warning of an unappealing reward-to-risk on the upside i.e. expect a pullback. At current levels, the commodity trades in a high bearish momentum regime, approaching short term oversold levels. In addition, it is trading at or around the rising 21-week exponential moving average (EMA), a level at which bulls could re-emerge. The short term trend remains down, however active traders would want to monitor for early signs of price stabilization which could signal the start of a base and potentially a bullish reversal.
Downside risk, as highlighted on 15 May:
Upside Opportunity on 16 November 2023:
I've been a copper bull since May 2020. This was the setup, as I highlighted and discussed at the time.
Lester Davids
Analyst: Unum Capital
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