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Writer's picturePeet Serfontein

Analyst Thoughts - USD/ZAR - The Bigger Picture

VOLATILE MOVES WITHIN THE LONG-TERM BULL TREND


  • The long-term outlook gives an overview of strategic outcomes and confirms medium-term views.

  • Long-term view: A number of medium-term bull and bear phases are expected to remain within the longer-term PQ* bull trend to T2 and T3 over time.

  • Medium-term view: The illustrated outcome is self– explanatory: 1. The current bull trend could target Z/T1, followed by and A,B,C type correction to S1 and Q*. 2. A meaningful bottom around Q should result in the eventual re–emergence of the larger bull trend to T2 and T3.

  • General outlook conviction: Medium to high.

  • Alternative outcome: The ZQ* formation is a trend-ending wedge with an eventual downside to S3.


 



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