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Writer's picturePeet Serfontein

Analyst Thoughts - USD/ZAR Medium-Term

THE R/S TRIANGLE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE COMPLETE


  • Summary: The RS pattern is nearing completion following the anticipated sharp reversal from the S2/S target zone.

    • The recent rise to R1* could represent the beginning of an impulsive bull trend labelled 1,2,3,4,5 aiming for targets T1 and T2.

    • A pullback from R1* could be developing into the second phase of this trend.

    • The pair's inability to surpass the crucial R1* level means the bull trend is still not confirmed.

  • Important Levels: R1* remains the key level for confirming the bullish trend. A breach of the SA1* level would weaken the bullish perspective, likely leading to continued fluctuation between R1* and S2.

  • Alternative Scenario: If the pair fails to break out from the RS triangle pattern, it may indicate a prolonged and more complex consolidation phase.

 


Target and re-assessment levels:

Important levels: R1* and SA1*

Primary trend: Bull trend to T1/T2

Current trend: Downside to SA1*, followed by gains to R1*

Monthly Range: R1*/SA1*

Technical rating: Medium




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