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Writer's picturePeet Serfontein

Analyst Thoughts - USD/ZAR Medium-Term

THE TRIANGLE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE APPROACHING COMPLETION.


  • The RS formation is nearing maturity and appears to be entering its final decline, designated as phase (E).

  • It is anticipated that the completion of this triangular pattern will trigger a strong bullish trend, propelling the pair towards target T1 and possibly further.

  • Currently, the pair is undergoing a correction phase, characterised by overlapping movements. This is part of the broader downward trajectory, specifically referred to as part y of the x,y,z decline and is unfolding as expected.

  • Should the pair break below point N or 18.78, it would signal the initiation of the final leg of the decline, targeting the support zone located between S and S2*. This event is expected to mark the completion of the RS triangular pattern.

  • Alternatively, if the pair falls beneath the critical S2* level, this will invalidate the triangular pattern, leading to a shift towards a more horizontal correction phase between R3 and S3.

 



Target and Reassessment Levels:

Important Levels: S2* - 18.12

Primary Trend: RS Triangle pattern consolidation, followed by a bull trend to 20.90 and beyond.

Current Trend: Downside to 18.32

Monthly Range: 18.12 to 19.32

Technical Rating: Medium



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