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Writer's picturePeet Serfontein

Analyst thoughts: EUR/USD Medium-term

EXPECTING THE PAIR TO CONSOLIDATE WITHIN THE 1.0580 TO 1.1175 RANGE BEFORE INITIATING A BULLISH TREND TARGETING 1.1655.

  • The general view of a 1,2,3,4,5 bull trend to R2 is retained. Some detailed adjustments to the current LQ consolidation pattern were made.

  • A somewhat irregular A,B,C pattern is developing within the LQ parameters.

  • The current phase C downside is slow and overlapping, suggesting limited further downside to S0/S1*/Q cluster support.

  • A 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 bull trend could develop off the indicated target area around S0 and Q.

  • The bear trend remains valid until a break of R0*.

  • It is important that the market remains above S1* for the illustrated outlook to remain valid.

  • A sharp breakthrough R0* will confirm the end of the corrective phase 2 with further upside scope.

  • Alternative: The depth of the phase 2 correction suggests that the bull phase could remain overlapping and within the LQ parameters as a likely alternative.

Target and Re-assessment Levels:

Important Levels: R0* and S1*

Primary Trend and Target Levels: Gains off Q to R2

Monthly Range: R0/S1*

Prevailing Trend and Target Levels: Downside to Q

Technical Rating: Medium


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