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Writer's picturePeet Serfontein

Analyst Thoughts: EUR/USD - A Bigger Picture

VIEW RETAINED FOR A BROADENING PRICE ACTION.


  • Long-term view: The illustrated W,X,Y bull phase is potentially a correction that should be completed around R3. The cyclical bear trend is bound to re-emerge off R3 to S3 and new lows, as illustrated.

  • Medium-term:   

  • The current A,B,C bullish correction could be forming phase C final upside to RA2*.  Holding above S0 will confirm this outcome.

  • The illustrated A,B,C and larger W,X,Y phases point to a general sideways outcome over the next few months between R3 and S2*. 

  • Overlapping volatile moves over this period will further corroborate the eventual downside potential to new lows.

  • Important levels: RA2* is important for the immediate view of limited gains. An interim break of S2* will immediately activate the large bear trend.

  • Conviction levels:

  • Medium to high and general outlook.

  • Speculative on interim detail.

  




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