Active Trading Plan - Wednesday, 16 October 2024

Updated: Oct 16

This page is updated as the price action and news flow develops and, as opportunities are identified in real-time. Research is published DAILY and can be accessed at the following link: www.unum.capital/blog

Yesterday (Tuesday) I discussed Impala Platinum, Naspers, Discovery, Cisco Systems, Invesco MidCap ETF (and more). In case you may have missed it, you can read it here: https://www.unum.capital/post/active-trading-plan-tuesday-15-october-2024

Unum Research Attains 3rd Place In The 2024 Securities Broker Awards.

COVERAGE: Notes Added Thus Far Today/Overnight

JSE Top 40 Index
GFI - Here's How Technology Helped Our Traders Uncover Opportunity
FX: EUR/USD - Short Term; Excessively Oversold
US 10-Year Bond Yield
S&P 500 Index
US Markets / Interest Rate Story!
Talking Points
- African Rainbow Minerals
- Sanlam
IWM Russell 2000 / Small Caps / Regional Banks - Strong and Making New Highs!
Anglogold Ashanti (ANG) - Cash Flow For Active Traders
Remgro (REM) - Strong Upside Follow-Through; Reduce, Some
Pacer US Cash Cowz 100 ETF (COWZ)

JSE Top 40 Index (Wednesday, 16-Oct at 12h03)

My aim is NOT to call the exact top or bottom in any price but to rather assess reward-to-risk which may coincide with major short, medium and long term turning points. There are however occasions when my timing is in line with a bullish or bearish reversal which then helps clients to capitalize on opportunities, specifically counter-trend moves. Most recently (Friday, 27 September) my note on the JSE Top 40 Index highlighted the overbought conditions in place, with the Tactical Trading Guide warning traders against new buy/long positions at the index level. As noted on the model at the time, 'the buy/long reward-to-risk is unappealing' and '...expect a minor retracement'. At current levels, the index is in a NEUTRAL range and to be frank, offering little clarity on either up or downside. When assessing the current regime, one word comes to mind: INDECISION!

TACTICAL TRADING GUIDE (CURRENT READING) - NEUTRAL

As Discussed:

GFI - Here's How Technology Helped Our Traders Uncover Opportunity [Wednesday, 16-Oct at 09h53]

Recent lows: "...Expect a small rebound..." - Time Frame (5 to 8 weeks)

FX: EUR/USD - Short Term Excessively Oversold [Wednesday, 16-Oct at 09h34]

Appealing buy/long reward-to-risk

US 10-Year Bond Yield [Wednesday, 16 Oct at 09h02]

The yield reversing just below my resistance zone (as discussed).

S&P 500 Index [Wednesday, 16-Oct at 08h54]

Early signs of deteriorating candle structure with the SPX closing lower by 0.91% yesterday evening.
Monday's model reading warning traders of a potential failure to hold the highs + the technical regime in a high bullish momentum / approaching overbought range.

U.S Market Snapshot - massive divergence between Small Caps/Nasdaq tonight!

Tuesday, 15-Oct / 21h39

Talking Points

African Rainbow Minerals (ARI). Big pullback in these China-exposed names. AR back at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement area. Yes, they can trade lower, but look for a reclaim of the previous day lows for a potential reversal trade (some of you may know it as a piercing candle). Tuesday, 15-Oct / 21h33.
Sanlam (SLM). Insurers have been very, very strong. This is a global theme and JSE insurers also have a roll to play. SLM is making another attempt at R90. Well, approaching R90. As you might already know, the more the price tests a certain level, the greater the chances of a breakthrough. Tuesday, 15-Oct / 21h24.

Anglogold Ashanti (ANG) - Cash Flow For Active Traders

Noted Added Tuesday 15 October at 17h39
Strong bullish reversal from just above R440 to above R480
The reading from the TTG acting as a guide to opportunity.

Remgro (REM) - Strong Upside Follow-Through From R132 to R162 (Multi-Month High) - Reduce, Some.

Note Added at 16h57 on Tuesday, 15 October 2024

IWM Russell 2000 / Small Caps / Regional Banks - Strong and Making New Highs!

Tuesday, 15-October at 18h36
Small caps with very strong price action this evening (looks like a move on the back of lower yields)
Aligns with my comments in July around regional banks/large banks (these make up a significant weight in the small cap space).