Lester Davids

Oct 115 min read

Active Trading Plan - Monday, 14 October 2024

Updated: Oct 14

This page is updated as the price action and news flow develops and, as opportunities are identified in real-time. Research is published DAILY and can be accessed at the following link: www.unum.capital/blog

On Friday I discussed U.S Financials, Thungela Resources, Tesla, DRD Gold, Harmony and HubSpot (and more). In case you may have missed it, you can read it here: https://www.unum.capital/post/active-trading-plan-friday-11-october-2024

Unum Research Attains 3rd Place In The 2024 Securities Broker Awards.

COVERAGE: Notes Added Thus Far Today/Overnight

Ethereum (ETH/USD)
S&P 500 Index
Northam Platinum (Video/Watch)
Clicks: 2x Cash Flow Opportunity
Standard Bank Group (Further Comment)
JSE Sector Ratings
Market Breadth: Summary of Technical Ratings
Price Action Talking Points
Trading Setups via Strategy Screens
Naspers Ltd
Pick n Pay Ltd
Shoprite Holdings
Foschini Group
Old Mutual Ltd
Nedbank Group
Standard Bank Group
[Global Ideas] SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME)
[Global Ideas] Uber Technologies: Currently Running +19%
[Global Ideas] iShares Cybersecurity & Tech ETF (IHAK) - Reaches $50
[Global Ideas] Blackrock Inc...$1000: A Stone's Throw
Most Overbought/Oversold
Strongest/Weakest Open To Close

Ethereum (ETH/USD)

Note Added On Monday, 14 October 2024 at 14h30
The current position, consolidation and candle structure is similar to that of the January 2024 period which was a precursor to a strong advance. Today, the candle structure reflects strong buying interest, with an igniting bar and a print near 2-week highs. Supporting a bullish view is the reclaim of the 8 and 21-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) while the price is now challenging the 50-day EMA.

S&P 500 Index

Add Monday, 14 October 2024 at 14h12

Northam Platinum (NPH) - (Video/Watch)

Note Added on Monday, 14 October at 11h35

Clicks Group Ltd (CLS)

Comment Added on Monday 14 October at 11h03

For active traders, 2x cash flow opportunities, with the share trading into the sell re-entry range.

Standard Bank Group

(Further Comment), Added on Monday 14 October at 09h59

To note, we are now seeing a very decent reversal from the reading off the tactical trading guide.
+ the red zone is subject to change, as you also need to watch the price action in real time.

Market Summary (as of Friday's close)

JSE Sector Ratings

JSE Market Breadth: Summary of Technical Ratings

Price Action Talking Points

The above graphic (JSE Market Breadth) is indicative of the overwhelming NEUTRAL regime that currently dominates the mid and large cap space. This of course is a short term 'trading' view which reflects the unwind from the recent overbought conditions that were in place and highlighted on 27 September. The preceding advance saw the share rebound from it's 21-week exponential moving average, with a subsequent print at all-time highs (driven by Naspers/Prosus and Resource shares). While the NEUTRAL regime may give impression that stocks are in a range and that that there is less opportunity than in previous weeks, several names have either retraced into their rising moving averages (a buying opportunity, see NED as a recent ultra short term play) or rallied from oversold into declining moving averages (see TGA as a recent opportunity to reduce into strength). For those with a well-defined process, there continuous opportunities to tactically take trades for short term cash flow. As always, in order to improve my chances of success, I'm sticking to my process.

Trading Setups via Strategy Screens

Premium Content

Premium Content

NPN NASPERS LTD | On 02 October my note cautioned against fresh longs, with the tactical Trading Guide highlighting the risk of a pullback. We have since seen the share retrace to below it's 8-day EMA. For new buy/longs, the rising 21-day is a 'first provisional level of interest' in terms of re-accumulation. The original note, warning traders can be read here: https://www.unum.capital/post/extremely-overbought-reduce-this-stock-into-strength

PIK PICK N PAY was highlighted as a candidate to clear it's range highs from which it could embark on a potential bullish advance. It did that at 2480c and traded up to 3000c within less than a month. As noted at the beginning of last week, we could see a pullback as the share was excessively overbought in the short term. The provisional next best probability trading levels are shown on the chart.

SHP SHOPRITE HOLDINGS | Very neutral/rangebound at current levels + capped by the 8-day ema. If the share rallies from current levels, the declining 21/50-ema (at roughly the same level) could act as a resistance zone and a next best probability level to sell into.

TFG Foschini - Provisional Next Best Probability Actionable Areas

OMU OLD MUTUAL | Traded into the buy re-entry range with positive price action on Friday. I don't have the direct information, but I noticed a comment saying that some of the insurance shares were downgraded by an international house. OMU was discussed here on Tuesday: https://www.unum.capital/post/active-trading-plan-tuesday-08-october-2024

NED NEDBANK GROUP | If you have access to my model (Tactical Trading Guide), then you would have seen the reading reflecting a buy into the rising 50-day EMA. On Thursday, the share tested this level for the first time in several month (rebounding strongly intraday), then testing the 50-day at Friday's open, followed by a bullish engulfing candle intraday (strong rebound from 287 to 295 - get in, get out, get paid!!!)

SSW Sibanye Stillwater | Last week Thursday, before the market updated was released that the court judgement was against SSW, a client enquired re: the share. Here, my view was that the next best spot for active traders would be between approximately 1746c and 1795c. Following the SENS announcement, the share dropped by close to 11% before recovering off the lows of the day. This was followed by a minor rebound on Friday with the share higher by 2.44% as of the time of writing (13h51 SA Time). After a 46% move from it's recent trough to peak, the pullback to a more normal level appeared in order. Pick your spot, stick to the process and be patient!

Note/Chart as of Friday 11 October at 14h26

SBK STANDARD BANK | Rebounding as per the model reading/reclaiming the 8/21 EMA on Friday with firmer price action. Next best probability actionable areas shown on the chart. Subject to change as the news flow as the price action develops.

Note/Chart as of Friday 11 October at 14h24

[Global Ideas] SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) - Target exceeded, however, this setup remains very constructive. Not extended at all!

Uber Technologies: Currently Running +19%. Higher by 10% In The U.S This Evening (Friday). Recently highlighted as a bullish setup in 'My Trading Notes".

Note Added Friday, 11 October at 21h28

The Cybersecurity Theme Has Been A Massive Winner For Clients Who May Have Been Positioned The Upside Move. The ETF now trades just under $50, from the alert at $36.60.